摘要：国际金融危机后，中国经济带头企稳，但是随之而来的是不断增强的流动性泛滥问题和通货膨胀预期。从中央经济工作会议的内容可以看出，管理通货膨胀预期将作为下一阶段以至很长一段时间工作的重点。本文从货币政策博弈的角度分析了中央银行在相机抉择的货币政策和单一规则的货币政策之间的权衡，并且指出，在我国，货币政策的制定者有制造意外的通货膨胀以刺激经济增长的动机；同时，对我国近十几年来的相关数据进行了实证分析，研究了通货膨胀预期与通货膨胀，以及货币供应量、利率和汇率等经济变量之间的关系，在此基础上提出了合理的管理通货膨胀预期的货币政策。
关键词：通货膨胀预期，货币政策，VAR模型
ABSTRACT：After the international financial crisis, China takes the lead in stabilizing the economy, but is followed by the increasing spread of liquidity and the growing inflation expectations. Seen from the central economic working conference, the management of inflation expectations will be the focus of the work in a long time. This paper analyzes the central bank's balance between the discretionary monetary policy and single rule. Monetary policy makers have incentives to create unexpected inflation to stimulate economy in China. In addition, this paper analyzes the relevant datas in the last decade, investigates the relationship among inflation expectations, inflation, monetary supply, interest rates and exchange rates and makes recommendations on monetary policy of the management of inflation expectations on this basis.
Key words: inflation expectations，monetary policy，VAR model
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