普通股估值与分析.doc

摘要:随着我国经济的发展，资本市场将会更为发达和完善。当今，相对于国外几百年发展历史的证券市场，我国证券市场显得比较落后，表现为法律法规不完善、内幕交易等违法违规行为时有发生、证券定价不科学，投资者盲目买卖等。对于股票价值定价的背后，决定因素有很多，对于这些因素组合如何同市场相结合而成为一种估值理论，还需要很多的研究。国外的通用模型固然可以洋为中用，但我国的证券市场有其特殊性，最明显的一点就是我国资本市场不是一个自由开放的市场，而是一个相对封闭的市场，这一点离不开我国的国情。加之我国的会计核算方式，统计方式等与国际市场还不完全一致，这也致使国外这些模型不能直接应用于我国市场。开发一套适合我国证券市场的估值模型，是我国投资者当前急需解决的大事，并刻不容缓。

关键词：估值模型，投资分析，投资研究

Abstract:With the development of China's economy, capital markets will be more developed and perfect. Today, as opposed to abroad for hundreds of years the historical development of securities market, China's securities market was relatively backward, showing inadequate laws and regulations, insider trading and other illegal acts have occurred, unscientific securities pricing, investors blindly trading. Behind the pricing for the value of the stock, decided by many factors, for these combinations of factors are combining with market and become a kind of valuation theory, but also need a lot of research. Foreign generic model can certainly make foreign things serve China, but China's securities market has its own specialty, the most obvious point is that China's capital market is not a free and open market, but a relatively closed market, which is inseparable from China's national conditions. Combined with China's accounting accounting methods, statistical methods and the international market is not entirely consistent, this also led to foreign model can not be directly applied to China's market. To develop a valuation model for China's securities market is the major event in China's investors need to be resolved, and without delay.

Key words：Valuation models，Investment Analysis，Investment Research

相对于国外几百年发展历史的证券市场，我国证券市场显得比较落后，随着我国经济的发展，资本市场将会更为发达和完善。当前，我国没有自己的一套适应当前证券市场发展水平的估值模型，投资者主要还是通过使用技术分析来指导股票的买卖，这种主观式的投资模型，仁者见仁、智者见智，因而难以科学合理地对股票进行价值定价。对于股票价值定价的背后，决定因素有很多，对于这些因素组合如何同市场相结合而成为一种估值理论，还需要很多的研究。本论文通过选取、修改、结合三个估值与分析模型，应用于泸州老窖的现实的估值中，具有很强的使用性和现实性，并在实践中告诉分析师，必须与时俱进地对普通股进行估值与分析，才能稳定市场和提高投资者的收益。