区域农产品物流需求预测研究--以江苏省为例_工业工程.doc

摘 要:改革开放30年来,我国农产品呈现出从短缺到区域性过剩，而我国对于农产品的物流研究起步不久，区域农产品物流对区域农村经济和区域经济的发展具有重要的推动作用。科学预测区域农产品需求，对促进区域农产品合理配置与流动具有重要的意义，本文以区域农产品需求预测为主要研究内容，为分析区域农产品需求变动趋势提供依据。本文的主要研究内容包括：

　　　（1）分析了江苏农产品物流发展的现状，剖析了影响江苏农产品物流需求的主要因素；

　　　（2）以灰色GM(1，1)预测模型为基础建立了区域农产品物流需求预测模型；

　　　（3）利用构建的预测模型对江苏省2012-2016主要农产品物流需求进行了预测分析，预测结果表明，2012-2016年期间江苏肉类和禽蛋类物流需求将有较大幅度提高，粮食和水果的物流需求将有小幅的增加，并针对这一预测结果提出了加强江苏农产品物流需求管理的对策。

关键词：区域物流，农产品物流需求，灰色预测

ABSTRACT:30 years of reform and opening up, China's agricultural exhibits from shortage to regional surplus, and our logistics for agricultural research has just started soon, Regional Agricultural Products Logistics for regional rural economy and regional economic development has an important role in promoting.Using science to predict regional demand for agricultural products, the promotion of regional produce rational allocation and liquidity is important. In this paper, regional demand for agricultural products is forecast to be the main research content, changes in demand for agricultural products is to analyze trends in regional basis.The main research contents include:

　　　Analysis of the status of the development of Jiangsu agricultural logistics, and  the major factor of the impact of logistics demand for agricultural products in Jiangsu ;

　　　Establishes regional agricultural logistics demand forecasting model based on Gray GM (1,1) prediction model;

　　　The use of predictive models built for the main agricultural products in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2016 were predicted logistics demand analysis.Prediction results show that during the period 2012-2016 in Jiangsu logistics needs of meat and eggs will have a more substantial increase, and demand for food and fruit logistics will have a slight increase.For the results of this prediction proposes  the countermeasures about strengthening the management of the logistics needs of agricultural products in Jiangsu

Keywords: Regional logistics, agricultural products logistics demand, gray prediction