尚景苑房地产项目投资风险的综合评价.doc

摘要:随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的不断完善,房地产业己逐渐成为国民经济的支柱产业和新的经济增长点。然而,由于房地产固有的建设周期长、投资额大、影响因素复杂等特性，决定了房地产投资的高风险性。因此对房地产项目投资风险进行综合评价己成为促进房地产业健康发展的重大课题。

　　　本文以万科尚景苑房地产项目二期为例（以下简称尚景苑项目）。对尚景苑项目可能存在的投资风险进行分析识别，分为社会风险、技术风险、经济风险、经营风险四大类，并简单介绍了各个风险中隐藏的主要风险。根据指标体系构建的原则，建立尚景苑项目投资风险的综合评价指标体系。在此基础上建立适应本项目的投资风险评价体系和综合评价模型，运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合的方法，对尚景苑项目进行综合评价，得出尚景苑项目的综合风险较低；最后针对评价结果提出一定的风险防范建议。

关键词 房地产项目；投资风险；综合评价

Abstract:With the constant improvement of China's socialist market economic system, the real estate industry has gradually become a pillar industry of the national economy and a new economic growth point. However, real estate has the inherent properties of long construction period, large investment and complex factors and so on, which determines the high risk of real estate investment. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of real estate investment risk has become a major issue of promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry.

　　　In this paper, Shangjing Real Estate Project Phase II of China Vanke (hereinafter referred to as the Shangjing project) is researched as an object, and identification of the investment risks that may exist in Shangjing Project is analyzed in this thesis which is divided into four main categories —social risk, technical risk, economic risk and operational risks. A brief introduction of the main risks hidden in various risks is also involved. According to the principle of index system building, the writer builds a comprehensive evaluation index system for the investment risk of Shangjing project . Based on this, an adaptable investment risk assessment system and a comprehensive evaluation model are set up, then the comprehensive evaluation of Shangjing project is made through the Analgtic Hierarchy Process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. At last, risk prevention recommendations are put forward based on the evaluation results.

Keywords  real estate project  investment risk  comprehensive evaluation